How To Evaluate Indie Hacker Business Ideas

4 min read

If you are an indie hacker, you probably have a growing list of ideas too. But what do you do with this list? How do you choose the right project to work on?

To decide which ideas are worthy to build you need to run them through two steps: evaluation and validation.

What are evaluation and validation?

Evaluation is the first step to work with your idea. It's where you decide whether it's worth to invest your time in this idea at all.

Validating is a much more time-consuming task: it's where you search for proof that the problem you are trying to solve actually exists. This is significantly more tedious: you need to interview people, do desk research and maybe run experiments too by setting up a landing page.

Evaluate using a requirement list

The easiest way to evaluate ideas is to run them against a requirement list. I encourage you to put together your own requirement list. To get some inspiration, here's mine:

    • Is it a painkiller product rather then a vitamin product?
      • Is the problem painful?
      • Is the problem important?
      • Is the problem urgent?
      • Is the prolem recurring?
      • Is the problem time-consuming?
    • Is it B2B?
      • Is the market size optimal?
      • Is the market stage early or growing?
      • Does it sell for min. $10 / month?
      • Is it already validated or is it easy-to-validate?
    • Is it a strong product-founder fit?

The dream problem to solve is where all these requirements are met:

An easy-to-validate painkiller solution to a problem that is painful, important, urgent, recurring and time-consuming, that sells for at least $10/month for businessess in a growing market with an optimal size in a business domain I am interested in.

Huh. That's one hell of a sentence, but in essence, that's really it. Let's take a closer look at these requirements and why I choose them.

photo of edison light bulbs hang on ceiling
Photo by Patrick Tomasso / Unsplash

😡 Is it a painkiller product?

The dream is to solve a problem that is so painful, important and urgent that even a half-baked MVP generates revenue.

For this to be true, we need to solve real, existing problems. This means our product has to be a "painkiller" product, not a "vitamin", nice-to-have product.

💰 Does it sell for min. $10 / month?

Solutions not worthy of $10 will attract a crowd of problematic customers, which will lead to heavy customer support workload. It will also take more resources to convert people, because if the solution is not worthy, the problem is not painful enough either.

Generally speaking having few high paying customers is always better, then having tons of low paying customers, because of less customer support, and easier targeting.

✅ Is the problem validated or easy-to-validate?

An already validated problem is a very good sign of opportunity. If your idea came from your own painful experience or you've been told this problem a thousand times, you can focus on the rest of your requirements.

Otherwise, try to estimate how hard would it be to validate your hypothesis. Think about how you would do it.

  • Can you do simple desk research?
  • Do you need to reach out to your audience?
  • If so, where will you find them?
  • How do you find out where to find them?

A very-hard-to-validate problem might not be worth your efforts.

👔 Is it B2B?

Businesses are willing to pay for solutions that save them time, energy or money. It's simply easier to make them pay you than everyday consumers.

There is however another segment, that is worht considering: B2A, which refers to Business-To-Aspirational. I've learned this term from Rob Walling, author of the Start Small, Stay Small indie hacker book, which I highly recommend.

This B2A segment covers hobbysts, artists, and passionate users, who do not operate as businesses, but they are willing to invest in their beloved activity. This segment also has a tendency to pay for their solutions, and word-of-mouth effect plays even better here.

🐟 Is the market size optimal?
📈 Is the market in early stage or is it growing?

Too big markets are eaten by the giants. Too small markets are not financially rewarding. Finding the perfec-size market means less competition and less marketing efforts.

Growing markets can present oportunities to scale in the future. Early stage markets are the same, however, a little bit riskier, because you'll never know whether the market will take-off or die early.

❤️ Is it a strong product-founder fit?

Working with communities you are interested in will help you avoid burnout and instead, work with enthusiasm. Having a background with the business domain will give you leverage. Having both of these will give you great momentum.

⚡ Evaluation should be fast

Running your idea against your requirement list shouldn't take too long. That's the point of evaluation. To filter out the ideas that are not even worth validating.

We love our ideas, and sticking to an evaluation framework will help as keep our feet on the ground and force ourselves to be analytical.

Summary

  • Collect your ideas, evaluate your ideas, validate your ideas
  • Create an evaluation requirement list
  • My requirements:
    • Should be a painkiller product, not a vitamin product
    • The problem should be painful, important, urgent, time-consuming and recurring
    • Should be B2B and sell for min $10/month
    • Market size should be optimal in early or growing stage
    • Should be validated or easy-to-validate
    • Should have strong product-founder fit
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